An examination of the efficacy of the precautionary principle as a robust environmental planning and management protocol

The precautionary principle is regularly cited in cases that involve development in eco-sensitive locations. We investigated whether the precautionary principle provides the basis for a coherent framework to prevent environmental harm, and does it work in practice? We suggest that, in principle, the precautionary principle makes good sense. In practice, however, it is imprecise in policy and law and fails to fulfil its promise because it is loosely defined and thus lacks substance and clarity. Consequently, it operates in a framework that is ambiguous, leaving it open to manipulation by discretionary powers. To counter such deficiencies, human-induced environmental harm should be formally observed as ‘criminogenic’ and environmental protection prioritised against which other competing priorities (e.g., ‘year on year’ economic growth) are measured. This would overcome the politico-legal obfuscation and contestations of climate change policy that currently impedes the precautionary principle's practical application.     

Transaction costs,communication and spatial coordination in Payment for Ecosystem Services Schemes

Agricultural producer participation and spatial coordination of land use decisions are key components for enhancing the effective delivery of ecosystem services from private land. However, inducing participation in Payment for Ecosystem Services schemes for coordinating land management choices is challenging from a policy design perspective owing to transaction costs associated with participation. This paper employs a laboratory experiment to investigate the impact of such costs on participation and land use in the context of an Agglomeration Bonus (AB) scheme. The AB creates a coordination game with multiple Nash equilibria related to alternative spatially-coordinated land use patterns. The experiment varies transaction costs between two levels (high and low), which affects the risks and payoffs of coordinating on the different equilibria. Additionally, an option to communicate is implemented between neighbors arranged on a local network to facilitate spatial coordination. Results indicate a significant difference in participation and performance under high and low transaction costs, with lower uptake and performance when transaction costs are high. These effects are, however, impacted by transaction costs faced in the past. Communication improves both AB participation rates and performance with the effect being greater for participants facing high transaction costs.     

Variance and Uncertainty in the Expected Number of Occurrences in Reserve Selection

Abstract:  Reserve selection often concerns the design of reserve networks for the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. We considered uncertainty in the context of three common reserve-selection formulations, the expected number of populations, proportional coverage of land-cover types, and the probability of having at least one population. By uncertainty, we mean variance in the outcome of any probability-based reserve selection formulation. A typical reserve-selection formulation might ask for the least expensive set of sites that contains n populations per species. It is implicit here that this requirement concerns the expected number of populations, which actually is obtained only with a 50% chance. If the requirement is changed to select the least expensive set of sites that gives n populations per species with a 95% probability, the number of sites required in the solution increases and the identity of the sites is changed toward sites that have high probabilities of persistence (or occurrence) and low associated binomial variance. Anthropogenic threat is one factor that may cause probabilistic uncertainty in the context of proportional area coverage.     

安全完整性水平评估中考察参数不确定性影响的一种方法

为有效减少参数不确定性对安全仪表系统安全完整性水平评估结果的影响,避免数据不充分等问题可能导致的较大评估偏差,以典型冗余结构为例,引入Monte-Carlo数值仿真方法计算平均要求时失效概率值,借助Matlab仿真,对结果进行统计特性分析。再通过与常用评估方法的比较,指出采用分布区间来描述评估结果有利于工程师更好地设计和应用安全仪表系统,总结采用Monte-Carlo方法考察参数不确定性问题的优势并提出该方法尚需改进的地方。     

Uncertainty assessment of mapping mercury contaminated soils of a rapidly industrializing city in the Yangtze River Delta of China using sequential indicator co-simulation

Accurate characterization of heavy-metal contaminated areas and quantification of the uncertainties inherent in spatial prediction are crucial for risk assessment, soil remediation, and effective management recommendations. Topsoil samples (0–15 cm) (n = 547) were collected from the Zhangjiagang suburbs of China. The sequential indicator co-simulation (SIcS) method was applied for incorporating the soft data derived from soil organic matter (SOM) to simulate Hg concentrations, map Hg contaminated areas, and evaluate the associated uncertainties. High variability of Hg concentrations was observed in the study area. Total Hg concentrations varied from 0.004 to 1.510 mg kg⁻¹ and the coefficient of variation (CV) accounts for 70%. Distribution patterns of Hg were identified as higher Hg concentrations occurred mainly at the southern part of the study area and relatively lower concentrations were found in north. The Hg contaminated areas, identified using the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soils critical values through SIcS, were limited and distributed in the south where the SOM concentration is high, soil pH is low, and paddy soils are the dominant soil types. The spatial correlations between Hg and SOM can be preserved by co-simulation and the realizations generated by SIcS represent the possible spatial patterns of Hg concentrations without a smoothing effect. Once the Hg concentration critical limit is given, SIcS can be used to map Hg contaminated areas and quantitatively assess the uncertainties inherent in the spatial prediction by setting a given critical probability and calculating the joint probability of the obtained areas.     

正确理解电气设备中电源插头的剩余电压和剩余能量

文章先说明了电气设备中电源插头LN插脚之间剩余电压和剩余能量的测量是考虑“差模干扰”的影响。而L（N）插脚与保护地之间的剩余电压和剩余能量的测量考虑“共模干扰”的影响。接着介绍了安全电压和安全能量的限值是如何确定的。然后重点分析常见电源电路中的X电容和放电电阻位置对电源插头的剩余电压和剩余能量的影响。并通过具体案例说明插头剩余电压和剩余电量是如何测量的。最后详细对电源插头达到安全电压所需时间的进行了不确定度分析和计算。     

Stochastic Watershed Water Quality Simulation for TMDL Development – A Case Study in the Newport Bay Watershed1

Abstract: Systematic consideration of uncertainty in data, model structure, and other factors is generally unaddressed in most Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Our previous studies developed the Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU) approach as an uncertainty analysis technique specifically for watershed water quality models, based on a synthetic case. In this study, we applied MOCAU to analyze diazinon loading in the Newport Bay watershed (Southern California). The study objectives included (1) demonstrating the value of performing stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis for TMDL development, using MOCAU as the technique and (2) evaluating the existing diazinon TMDL and generating insights for the development of scientifically sound TMDLs, considering uncertainty. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used as an example of a complex watershed model. The study revealed the importance and feasibility of conducting stochastic watershed water quality simulation for TMDL development. The critical role of management objectives in a systematic uncertainty assessment was well demonstrated. The results of this study are intuitive to TMDL calculation, model structure improvement and sampling strategy design.     

Determination of trace elements in total suspended particles at the Southwest of Mexico City from 2003 to 2004

The purpose of the present study is to describe the relationships of eight elements analysed in total suspended particles collected in Mexico City, during 2003 and 2004. Al, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and V were analysed in to the atmospheric samples and the results were treated by Principal Components Analysis and Cluster Analysis trying to identify the possible sources of aerosols in the sampling site. Factor analysis calculations allowed the elements classification, related to their source on oil combustion, crustal and urban dust, smelting industries and motor vehicle emissions. A further statistical analysis of chemical results from the atmospheric samples was also performed, in order to see what environmental concentrations of those elements have been affected by industrial and mining activities. The eight elements analysed were arranged into two groups that presents high and positive Pearson r values suggesting common emission sources.     

Measuring Plant Cover in Sagebrush Steppe Rangelands: A Comparison of Methods

Methods that are more cost-effective and objective are needed to detect important vegetation change within acceptable error rates. The objective of this research was to compare visual estimation to three new methods for determining vegetation cover in the sagebrush steppe. Fourteen management units at the US Sheep Experiment Station were identified for study. In each unit, 20 data collection points were selected for measuring plant cover using visual estimation, laser-point frame (LPF), 2 m above-ground-level (AGL) digital imagery, and 100-m AGL digital imagery. In 11 of 14 management units, determinations of vegetation cover differed (P < 0.05). However, when combined, overall determinations of vegetation cover did not differ. Standard deviation, corrected sums of squares, coefficient of variation, and standard error for the 100 m AGL method were half as large as for the LPF and less than the 2-m AGL and visual estimate. For the purpose of measuring plant cover, all three new methods are as good as or better than visual estimation for speed, standard deviation, and cost. The acquisition of a permanent image of a location is an important advantage of the 2 and 100 m AGL methods because vegetation can be reanalyzed using improved software or to answer different questions, and changes in vegetation over time can be more accurately determined. The reduction in cost per sample, the increased speed of sampling, and the smaller standard deviation associated with the 100-m AGL digital imagery are compelling arguments for adopting this vegetation sampling method.     

PLANNING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ON LAKE EUTROPHICATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changing nutrient inputs through land use management, waste water treatment, or effluent diversion are not clear, and managers are discovering that decisions which were effective in reversing eutrophication for one lake are often unsuccessful when applied to another. Simple empirical relationships are often used to predict the impact of management decisions. Errors in estimation could result in either substantial costs for overdesign or failure to meet desired eutrophication levels. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology to evaluate the impact of land use and water resource management decisions on lake eutrophication. The problems of worth of additional information, and uncertainty of estimates were handled within a cost-effectiveness framework. The probability of exceeding a critical level of eutrophication was considered as a measure of effectiveness. The cost criterion is the expected value of opportunity costs, costs of analysis and costs of additional information. Uncertainty analysis techniques were used to estimate the effectiveness of various management alternatives. Bayesian methods can be utilized to determine the worth of additional information. The methodology was applied to Beseck Lake, Connecticut, and the cost and effectiveness measures estimated for a number of land management alternatives. Worth of additional information was not determined in this initial effort in uncertainty analysis for lake eutrophication management.